08.11.2006 The draft ceasefire plan agreed to by the United States and France may result in an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, but it will not disarm Hizb'allah.
It appears that United Nations efforts are concentrating on halting Israeli military operations throughout Lebanon, but no effort is being made to eliminate the Hizb'allah threat. The draft agreement only calls for pushing Hizb'allah north of the Litani, not far enough from Israel’s northern border to place Hizb'allah rockets out of range from northern Israeli civilian population centers.
While the draft agreement supports UN Resolution 1559, demanding Hizb'allah be disarmed by the Lebanese government, it does not make this a precondition to the implementation of the ceasefire.
The plan calls or the deployment of the current UNIFIL force in southern Lebanon, to be supported by some 10,000 French forces and 15,000 Lebanese army troops. Other countries may also send troops to take part in the force, which will be responsible to prevent Hizb'allah attacks into Israel.
Lebanese authorities and Hizb'allah are already signaling the plan is unacceptable since it does not demand an immediate withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, but permits a gradual withdrawal of forces over a month. In addition, Lebanese officials are calling the plan discriminatory, since it mentions the need to work towards the release of captive IDF soldiers while not making mention of the release of Lebanese soldiers.
In Jerusalem, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz have put the next stage of the IDF anti-Hizb'allah offensive in southern Lebanon on hold, realizing a stepped-up offensive at this time would compromise White House efforts to broker a ceasefire. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is expressing cautious optimism, but has decided not to permit Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to travel to New York to address the Security Council, fearing such a move would increase pressure on Israel.
In 30 days, the agreement will seek more comprehensive ceasefire terms as well as formulating solutions towards the release of three IDF captive soldiers.
The agreement is being rejected by the IDF, with members of the General Staff expressing strong opposition, stating the plan prevents planned efforts towards reducing the Hizb'allah threat. Military officials fear the implementation of the draft ceasefire will do nothing to disarm the terror organization.
Defense Minister Peretz in statements released in Jerusalem on Thursday stated that prior to advancing military operations; all diplomatic channels would be exhausted. The senior minister added that there are several points that must be included in any ceasefire plan, including the deployment of a multinational stabilization force in southern Lebanon, removing the threat of future Katyusha rocket attacks against Israel, disarming Hizb'allah and setting in motion a plan towards the release of captive IDF soldiers.Arutz Sheva Pentagon Worried By Syria's Rising Self-confidence The U.S. administration is troubled by what a senior Defense Department official termed "a rise in Syria's self-confidence."
The official, who spoke with Haaretz Thursday, expressed frustration over the fact that the United States, Israel and the international community have been unable until now to persuade Syrian President Bashar Assad to change his behavior. He attributed this failure to the fact that "thus far, no real pressure has been applied to Syria by any of the parties."
The official, who termed Syria's rising self-confidence "a problem for everyone," said that there had been chances to influence Syria, "but they were missed."
Regarding Israel's decision to leave Syria out of the current fighting in Lebanon, he said: "I don't want to say what my opinion of this decision is."
The Pentagon believes that Syria's influence over events in Lebanon has increased in recent weeks, and the Bush administration is very worried by this, since it viewed Syria's ouster from Lebanon last year as a significant achievement.
The U.S. views Syria as a destabilizing force in the region on three counts: It has not prevented terrorists from entering Iraq via Syria; it has not closed down the Damascus offices of Palestinian rejectionist groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad; and it continues to intervene in Lebanon's internal affairs.
In recent weeks, the Bush administration has come under pressure from former senior officials, media pundits and allied diplomats to reopen its dialogue with Syria. Six months ago, the U.S. recalled its ambassador from Damascus and has not yet returned him. But Washington does not want to involve Syria in the current Lebanese crisis without a significant change in its behavior, since, in the words of a senior administration official, "that would be an open invitation to the Syrians to resume interfering in events in Lebanon."Haaretz
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