07.11.2006
In a troubling display of contradictory thinking during a conference for foreign journalists Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert gave the strong impression of being on the defensive rather than confidently standing at the helm of his country during difficult days.
The premier made a series of statements that simply made no sense:
In one breath, apparently to obtain a sympathetic hearing from his audience, Olmert complained that Israel had not had a single day of peace and quiet since his predecessor, Ariel Sharon, implemented his 'disengagement' plan, uprooting 10,000 Jews and completely withdrawing the IDF out of the Gaza Strip.
"There is no occupation in Gaza since August last year, and since then there hasn't been one day of quiet for the citizens of Israel. Killing innocent Israeli civilians is what they [the freed-up Arabs in Gaza] have been trying to do every day."
In his next breath, in a statement with an ominously fatalistic ring to it, the prime minister insisted that the incessant conflict with the Palestinian Arabs would not prevent Israel from carrying out further unilateral withdrawals this time from Samaria and Judea.
"We want to separate from the Palestinians in a friendly way, but if the terrorist organizations force violence upon us, both Israelis and Palestinians will suffer the consequences," he said.
Inexplicably, however, in Olmert's thinking, the end result of all this conflict could still be tranquil relations between Israel and Palestine.
"Despite this [violence], it will neither interfere with nor stop the inevitable process of separation between Israel and the Palestinians in order to create two states living side by side in peace and security."
The prime minister went on to assert that, despite the escalation in violence, terrorism and tension, with Israel now in a state of war as he called it two days ago“ with the Palestinians, he remains determined to continue on the path to the convergence idea, as the strongest idea for moving events forward in the Middle East.
"I have not changed my mind over the past few days regarding the convergence plan, and I am determined to continue on my road to the ultimate separation from the Palestinians, and to attain secure borders that will be recognized by the international community."
Topping all of this, he tried to convince the savvy press pack that Israel really has no serious fight to pick with Hamas, the terrorist organization which, more than any other group, is responsible for the current situation.
"We do not have any desire to topple the Hamas regime", he maintained, but then made nonsense of that assertion by saying that "We do have the desire to stop terrorism against Israeli citizens."
Since Olmert won in the general election last March, numerous concerned Israel watchers have commented on his lack of national leadership experience.
Critical rightist Israelis have accused him of lacking statesmanship, saying he came to the premiership "on Sharon's coat tails" and is not qualified to be prime minister of the Jewish state.
Jerusalem Newswire
What A Shame
What a shame. If only the town of Dugit were there, the IDF wouldn't be fighting to recapture it, and nobody would be firing missiles at Ashkelon from there.
If only Elei Sinai and Nissanit were there, the army would have a permanent presence there, and "international opinion" would not be pressing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to get the army out of there. Because an army that isn't protecting civilians is an occupying army.
It's too bad that at the end of the day, the "fingers plan" turned out to be right. That plan spoke of the necessity of civilian settlement in Gaza as an anchor for military presence.
But it's not only from the north. They are now shooting at Netivot, Kfar Maimon and Kibbutz Saad from other places, and the army wants to divide up the Strip. For this, they will need a "fingers plan" in south Gaza that will reach all the way to the sea, in order to monitor the Gaza port. Call it Netzarim.
Who's protecting who?
Today, the army is complaining that it will take an entire brigade to accomplish this, and that soldiers will be forced to remain on the ground for an extended period. It's too bad, really. When Netzarim was there, a battalion was enough to accomplish such a task.
But the peace camp protested: What?! An entire battalion to protect a few settlers?! And the hostile media rejected settler statements that it wasn't an IDF battalion protecting settlers, but rather it was settlers and that IDF battalion protecting the Negev.
Strong opposition
Reports from the battlefront say the IDF has been surprised at the ferocity of the Palestinian resistance and the quality of their weaponry. This is really too bad. Before the settlers were expelled from Gush Katif, this stretch of land enabled the IDF to monitor the Philadelphi Route and the Rafah Crossing.
Weapons now flow freely across them, and the army is forced to "monitor" these areas from Dehaniya. And as an "occupier," it's time there is limited.
If the curse of "realignment" actually comes to pass, we will soon see tunnels from Jenin, Tul Karm and Qalqilya, and rockets that will be fired from the outposts like Hersha, Mitzpeh Lachish and Givat Assaf currently slated for destruction will explode in places like Modiin, Kiryat Gat and Jerusalem.
Today, the IDF is in every corner of Judea and Samaria. After Elon Moreh, Itamar, Shilo and Eli are erased, the army will be forced to re-conquer those ruins, at a heavy cost in blood.
Today the world does not demand the evacuation of an air force base next to Ofra and the IDF camp near Beit El. But after those towns are destroyed the army's presence there will be intolerable to the international community.
Small country to a Qassam
How many evicted settlers, stunned and traumatized, bitter and dispirited, would be prepared to return today to Gush Katif, to absorb thousands of mortars? Kibbutzim in the area were so happy, and today they are tasting the taste. How about asking them for forgiveness?
So protect the settlers who are still there, over the green line. Just look how small Israel is to a Qassam rocket! How far is it from the Hermesh, Avni Hefetz, Einav and Shavei Shomron communities slated for destruction to Tulkarem, and from there to Netanya?
Protect the young people who live in mobile homes and caves in the South Mount Hebron area, thus allowing the army to control the flow of terror to the Negev. And protect outposts such as Skully, Ronen and Yitzhar, that provide a foundation for the IDF to control Nablus. Protect your brothers who went into the lion's den to protect you.
It's too bad, really. You've got nothing better against fanatic Islam.
Are we really similar to the antibodies, whose function is to protect you from foreign attack but destroy the immune system from within?
Gamla
Palestinian Suicide Strategy
Understandably, most people in the world fail to understand Palestinian ideology and strategy today largely because it is so bizarre compared to politics as usual.
Before examining the basic principles of the Palestinian approach it is useful to consider how things usually work, and thus what people who don't know much about Palestinian politics think they are like.
Normal politics features realizable goals, paying keen attention to the balance of forces, avoiding losing conflicts, and seeking a stable state.
They also include such things as putting a high priority on raising living standards and building effective institutions to serve the people.
Every day Western governments, media and academics try to impose this model on Palestinian behavior, politics and ideology. Yet it just doesn't work. The things many in the West think motivates Palestinians - getting a state, ending the occupation - are of no interest in their own right. Indeed, the only way to maintain the pretense is a combination of amnesia and abandoning of the kind of rational analysis used to view any other political situation in the world.
I must add that in private (though virtually never in public) Palestinian intellectuals sound a lot like me. Over and over again, one hears disgust, despair and profound cynicism along the lines described below.
Given the current Palestinian ideology and strategy the conflict is unsolvable, and there is no way to stop the violence. On the other hand, as a result, Palestinian tactics are unworkable, politics are disorganized, and military strategy is self-defeating. The Palestinians can harass Israel, but not much more.
HERE ARE the basic points for understanding Palestinian politics:
There are hardly any moderate Palestinians in public life and even those few generally keep their mouths shut, or echo the militant majority. With few exceptions - countable on your fingers - a Palestinian moderate in practice can usually be defined as someone who apologizes for terrorism in good English. The mantra of "helping the moderates" cannot work under these conditions.
Fatah and PLO strategy rests on the belief that defeat is staved off as long as you keep fighting. Their only true victory is to continue the struggle. Of course, the cost of this is not only violence, suffering and disruption, but also a failure to achieve anything material.
This is why the "cycle of violence" concept is useless. Palestinians don't attack Israel because Israel attacks them, but because that is their sole program.
Whatever the common people think privately, the vast majority of activists believe everything must be subsumed to the struggle.
Democracy, living standards, women's rights and so on have no value outside contributing to the battle against Israel. This is why the idea of appealing to Palestinian material interests or finding some leader who puts the priority on achieving peace and plenty fails.
The interim goal is to be able to claim phony victories, which are actually costly defeats. If after 40 years of armed struggle the movement's great triumphs are destroying one Israeli outpost a year or kidnapping a single soldier, this shows its remarkable weakness on the battlefield. Inflicting damage on Israel via rocket attacks serves no Palestinian strategic objective except to make people feel good about damaging Israel (even while they suffer far more damage themselves). Celebrating martyrs simply means bragging about your own casualties.
The movement's social policy is remarkably reactionary. Despite its leftist veneer it does not activate the masses except as an audience to cheer on the heroes. Fatah has no economic or social policy; Hamas seeks to turn Palestine into Iran or Afghanistan.
They have more in common with the world view of the Middle Ages than with Chinese or Cuban visions of guerrilla war. Palestinian groups use only a tiny proportion of the potential for large-scale social mobilization, a feature far more characteristic of the supposedly soft Israeli society.
Not only is infrastructure unimportant, it interferes with waging all-out struggle. If Palestinians become obsessed with job creation, educational or health systems or a successful economy this makes them satisfied with their lot and less willing to fight and die for the cause. This concept, jarring for Western observers, is common in the Middle East. Consider Saddam Hussein's irresponsible aggressions and the Syrian rulers' preference for stagnation over reform.
Use your people's suffering to win international support. No fear of destruction or popular suffering deters Palestinian leaders. After it was charged that Hamas laid mines on a Gaza beach killing civilians last month, an American newspaper opined that Hamas would never do this to its own people. On the contrary: There is a long pattern of sacrificing Palestinian lives and welfare for propaganda gains. Children are encouraged by the official Palestinian media to become terrorists and hence martyrs.
Lie endlessly, not only to everyone else but to yourself, portraying Israel as always wrong and America as always hostile. Their inability to transcend propaganda and the incessant demonization has ensured - except for rare times during the Oslo process - that the Palestinians cannot maneuver successfully in dealing with these countries.
THIS IS A losing strategy: Destroy your infrastructure, subvert international and even Arab support through extremism - no one is now even surprised that Arab states do nothing to help the Palestinians out of their mess - throw away chances for interim gains (like getting a state) to avoid compromising the chance for total victory, repeat old mistakes, rejoice over defeats as producing martyrs, taunt the world's sole superpower, exalt anarchy, and forfeit any chance of winning sympathy on the other side.
Such a suicide strategy, like suicide bombing, can inflict losses on the enemy but cannot defeat it. Indeed, by sacrificing so many possible benefits it ensures that the gap steadily widens in favor of the other side.
Far from any sign of resistance to this disastrous approach it seems capable of providing decades more of glorious defeat and martyrdom. Maybe it will even go on long enough for those in the West who keep expecting something different to understand what's going on.
The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs.
Jerusalem Post
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